Qatar Coronavirus Updates - Still no Second Wave, but not Reducing Either

This week saw the daily number of cases stay steady in the 200s. Schools started so we will see if next week that will lead to a second wave. Many countries in the world, especially in Europe, are dealing with a huge increase in cases but so far in Qatar that hasn't happened yet. I spoke to someone that I know in the public medical field here and they told me most of the cases appeared to be Qataris and white-collar expats, with a lot of spread amongst families. They don't see as many blue-collar expat cases as before. This means an increased likelihood of the virus spreading in schools, most blue-collars workers do not have their families here so daily cases are more likely to reach children.

Is there any reason to trust the data from the Government? I think so. Remember Qatar has the highest per capita number of detected cases in the world, currently at 4.3% of the population. The next highest rate is Bahrain at 3.4% (UK is at 0.5%, US at 1.9%, Canada at 0.35%). If Qatar was fudging numbers to "look good" they wouldn't be reporting such a large number of cases, Qatar could have reported a quarter of the cases and people would have believed it.

Nowadays for COVID-19 stats I go to worldometers.info, which updates information as they receive it. You can report information as long as you cite a source -- in the last few months I sent them updates based on Government presentations and the website was updated within 15 minutes. They also have charts/graphs for every country and examining them shows interesting trends.

Qatar has a solid bell curve when the first wave hit in May-June, which then tapers off to where we are today, roughly 200-300 cases a day.

The deaths follow a similar pattern, with a 2-4 week delay from the peak.

But when you look at Saudi Arabia, you see a similar bell curve for cases:

But not for deaths, which have barely reduced:

That the death rates have not significantly decreased is odd given the dramatic drop in daily cases. It indicates a problem with the data, either Saudi is not detecting cases well anymore or they might be counting deaths as COVID-19 related when perhaps they are not.

Bahrain has entered a second wave -- daily cases are now worse than ever (and on a per-capita basis nearly seven times worse than Qatar):

And the deaths are starting to pick up as well. Sadly the country passed Qatar in total deaths this week, despite having roughly half the population.

Kuwait never appeared to get a handle on things, daily cases have been steady since mid-May:

But look at the deaths:

I am guessing Kuwait wasn't detecting many of the COVID-19 cases back in May-June as the death rate then was much higher than it is now, despite the detected number of cases not decreasing significantly. Per capita case rate is also more than double Qatar's right now so it's hard to say if Kuwait is in the beginning of a second wave since the first wave never seemed to taper off.

Finally Oman. I don't know what happened here, it appears in August they stopped publishing frequent case data because the information suddenly becomes sparse:

But look at the deaths!

Is it a second wave? It's hard to say, the big spikes occur after a gap in data, it's possible that Oman is reporting all of the deaths over the period, so you have data for 3-5 days in one go.

So Qatar's data seems to follow an expected cases to deaths pattern, whereas with some of the other nearby countries it can be a bit more problematic. I don't see any reason to mistrust the Qatar data at this time.

Coronavirus Updates and a Huge Change to Employment Rules

What I was worried would be a post-Eid spike in COVID-19 did not occur, thankfully. All through the month cases held steady but slowly decreased from the upper 200s a day to the low 200s, it was even under 200 a couple of days ago. A slight decrease yes but overall I would say it was steady through the month. Deaths are 2-3 a week now instead of every day. There's still over 60 people in ICU though. The Ministry has added a new statistic about how many of the new cases are from travelers in quarantine, which is around 10-12 a day, so the number of community cases is actually at or just below 200 a day now.

The Government was not entirely happy with how things have developed so decided not to go completely to Phase 4 of removing lockdown restrictions today. Some restrictions were removed but others remain so I guess we moved to Phase 3-and-a-half. The Government hopes to move to phase 4 in a couple of weeks. The Metro opened today but at 30% capacity, and offices are still at maximum 80% of staffing. Spa/massage services are still closed.

Unfortunately part of phase 3 travel restrictions was that Qataris coming in from low-risk countries could self-quarantine at home for a week. Months ago when self-quarantine was allowed many Qataris would ignore it and the Government would arrest them. And guess what's happening now? Arrests for breaking quarantine! Five yesterday, four the day before. Some people don't learn.

I think the Government is being cautious as it is waiting to see what happens with the opening of schools. This was the other area that I was concerned could lead to a second wave, face-to-face schooling. Schools opened today so we'll see what happens over the next two weeks.

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In non-COVID news the Government announced a big change to labour laws, raising the minimum wage slightly but, more importantly, removing the requirement for a No Objection Certificate ('NOC') to change jobs.

Most workers in the Middle East are foreigners and it can be expensive for an employer to bring workers. Flights, visas, and so forth add up, usually to thousands of dollars. So employers were concerned about spending a bunch of money to bring people in, only to have them start job-hunting when they arrive and change jobs as soon as they get a better offer. Also a business could save money by poaching staff from competitors, just wait for someone else to spend the money bringing workers then offer those workers a slightly better salary to move to you. To protect against that the NOC system was created, for the first X years of employment (I think two in Qatar) the employee cannot change jobs without receiving an NOC from the employer. Unfortunately this system gave the employers a lot of power over employees, many of whom went into debt in their home countries to pay an agency for the job so now they can't afford to leave. Result: employees who can't leave an abusive employer. The NOC is a key part of why there are problems with workers in the Gulf being unfairly treated.

So Qatar will be removing the NOC, allowing workers to give a months notice (might be two, it depends on how long you worked for the employer) then leave for another job. It's a great step for workers' rights. However I suspect implementing this is not going to be all rainbows and unicorns as now the country will have to deal with staff immediately leaving or competitors poaching. But that is an issue for the companies, and a company was underpaying workers or treating them poorly they deserve to have them leave and be stuck with costs. In the long-term, after the initial 'growing pains' it should result in improvements for workers in terms of salary and treatment and I hope it results in significant improvements for low-paid workers. I am sure other countries in the Gulf will be closely watching how this develops, as will Human Rights groups.

The exact this will occur depends on when the new law is gazzetted, H.H. the Emir signed it though.

Stay safe everyone.

 

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- No Second Spike (so far)

It has been three weeks since Eid ended and there has been no evidence of a sharp increase in cases. Things are holding steady at around 230-290 cases a day, it could be better but at least it hasn't become worse. Unfortunately people here are being pretty laid-back about it now, in March when over 200 cases was first reported it was a huge deal and people were very concerned, now people are just going on with their lives. At least restaurants and malls are still strict about mask wearing and temperature scans. Most restaurants aren't open for dine-in either, take-away and delivery is standard for almost all of them now but many do not allow you to eat inside. 

While there was talk of the Government delaying moving to Phase 4 (currently scheduled for September 1st) there have been no announcements. I realize it has been almost six months but people need to still take things seriously. There are still hundreds of people in hospital, over 60 in ICU, and people are still dying from the virus. Until such time as there is a vaccine precautions are always going to be needed. Today was around 280 cases, or about 100 cases per 1,000,000 people. It doesn't seem like a lot but that is higher than most countries. Yesterday the UK reported 19 per million, Spain 78, Canada 7, and in the US, which everyone considers to be a complete basket case of COVID, it was 134. The population of Qatar is roughly the same as the city of Vancouver and if Vancouver reported over 200 cases a day they'd be shutting things down.

The Government is hopeful for a vaccine by the end of the year and is already planning the acquisition and distribution should one be available. I am a bit skeptical of something by the end of the year, especially if it is that vaccine announced out-of-the-blue by Russia.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- possibly a second wave?

The last few weeks saw a gradual decline in cases but now they, at first glance, appear to be increasing. People are already discussing a second wave. I thought so at first as well but looking at the numbers now I am not sure if it is a significant trend.

The issue is the Eid Al-Adha holiday, which started on July 31st. If we look at the daily case rate in Qatar over the last three weeks, starting at July 23rd:

July

23: 373 

24: 394

25: 398

26: 269

27: 292

28: 283

29: 273

30: 307

then it's the Eid break

31: 235

1: 216

2: 196

3: 215

4: 216

then Eid break is over

5: 267

6: 287

7: 291

8: 267

9: 297

10: 315

11: 384

12: 292

13: 343

14: 251

There's definitely an increase from the 9th-13th when you compare it to the lowest segment, during Eid, but given that the lowest numbers happen to occur during a major holiday makes me wonder if the fact that it was a holiday explains the drop in cases. People might have been less inclined to go for testing, maybe contact tracing efforts slowed down as staff were on holiday, who knows. It does seem like an odd coincidence though.

The last five days are comparable to mid-late July so it might be that Qatar is just continuing on its curve flattening. If you ignore the Eid numbers it seems reasonably consistent.

Now in earlier blog posts I noted my concern that the Eid holiday would result in an increase in cases as people socialized over the holiday. It is now 10 days after the last Eid day so an increase in cases should be seen now. That might account for the slight increase we are seeing. If that's all the increase then it is a lot better than I thought it could be, I was worried post-Eid we would see a big spike. Today looks pretty good so there might not be a spike after all.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- and Eid Updates

So it is the middle of the Eid holiday (for most at least, banks and other financial services opened today) and I am not so sure about how strictly people are social distancing. At least shops and malls are doing a good job of making sure people wear masks and show their Etheraz app to show that they are not a suspected case of COVID-19. I sure hope the barber shops were being careful, getting a haircut is a standard thing to do for Eid and the barbershops were sure to be busy. I'm not planning to go for at least two more weeks, chances are the barbers will catch coronavirus but many will not have symptoms. They would be fine in a couple of weeks though.

On Monday I did something that I haven't done for almost five months -- go to a restaurant. As of August 1st restaurants can do limited indoor seating and some friends wanted to meet for breakfast so I figured I would give it a try as I did not expect the place to be busy. I was correct, we were the only table for most of the time there. A couple showed up later and were seated at the opposite end of the restaurant. The restaurant was strict on procedure, they took everybody's temperature, looked at our Etheraz apps, and wrote down our names and ID before allowing us in. Waiters were heavily masked up and had face shields. I only ordered cooked foods, though now that I think about most breakfast items in a restaurant are cooked. We didn't have coffee though as afterwards the guys wanted to go to a nice cafe they knew in the Musherib district. Again we had our temperatures taken and had to show our Etheraz app. Again we were the only people seated, though others did show up to get coffee to go.

As for COVID-19. Qatar has been hovering in the 200-ish cases a day now. Some days more than 200 but other days fewer than 200. Qatar is still not on the EU travel list but I'm wondering if they'll be included when the list is reviewed next week. Maybe not though, there are still around 3,000 active cases in Qatar. I'm also worried about a post-Eid second spike with all the social visits and crowds at barbers.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Now Under 300 Cases a Day

Things continue to improve and the last three days has seen daily cases under 300 a day. Qatar has been closing some of their "coronavirus-only" medical clinics and allowing them to operate normally. There are still about 100 people in ICU and anywhere from zero to two people are dying each day but that should lessen over time.

The Eid Al-Adha holiday starts tomorrow which means lots of socializing for people and attendance at mosques. It is a risky situation, Qatar entered Phase 3 of removing restrictions yesterday so more places are open and gathering sizes have increased. There's a real risk of a spike in cases over the next two weeks if people are not careful. I think most people feel that the worst has passed so they are being more lax about things. It's a dangerous mindset, if you look at some countries in Europe, some states in the US, or places like Hong Kong, it does not take much for the virus to take hold again. Oman has reimposed some restrictions after cases shot up there and Bahrain is not doing well either.

Hopefully the Eid holiday does not cause problems but there is another potential hotspot on the horizon -- the reopening of schools in September. Now that travel restrictions have been lessened a lot of people left Qatar for home or holidays, and schools will be reopening in September. The potential for the virus spreading is big as a child may have caught it abroad, shows no symptoms, then spreads it at school from which it will spread to families.

If by late-September there is still no uptick in cases then Qatar will have done a great job handling the crisis. Until then there is a possibility of a second wave and for restrictions to be reinstated. 

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Amendments to Travel Restrictions

For the last few days Qatar's daily cases were in the 300s. Today it went back up into the 400s but the overall downward trend continues. At this rate Qatar should make the EU travel list in August. Will it be in time for Eid Al-Adha (starting July 31st)? I doubt it, it depends on when the EU reviews the list and how long the evaluation takes. Also Qatar needs to average in the low 400s (maybe the 300s) for two weeks, something they haven't achieved yet. Sadly there are still 1-3 deaths a day but the number of hospitalizations and people in the ICU continue to decrease. Qatar is almost at the point where confirmed cases equals 4% of the population, the highest rate in the world. I assume in time the Government will shift to antibody studies to get an idea of the real percentage infected, studies in other hard-hit countries show that 4% would be on the low side. 

But the real buzz in Qatar was an announcement by the Government changing the travel restrictions! Starting August 1st a traveller entering Qatar from a low-risk country will have to take a Coronavirus test on arrival and isolate at home for a week then take another test. They don't have to pay for quarantine in a hotel for two weeks! The Government will also have a list of accredited testing centres in some higher-risk countries. If travellers from that country get a Coronavirus test at the accredited centre 48 hours before travel then on arrival they too can isolate at home for a week before taking another test. Otherwise arrivals will still need to pay for quarantine at a hotel, but for one week instead of two (then another week at home). 

There are other rules and requirements for people over a certain age etc. Notably non-Qatari residents need to apply for a 'return permit' to come back to Qatar, I assume so the Government can control the number of people entering and prevent a flood of thousands at any one time. The Government hasn't circulated the list of low-risk countries yet but I assume it'll be whoever is on the EU list. Someone mentioned the US would be on it, which would be interesting as I don't see how the US could be considered low-risk at the moment but we'll see. 

So things are slowly returning to normal. Stage 3 of removing restrictions is still scheduled for August 1st, when barbers can open and restaurants can do limited dine-in.

Qatar Cornonavirus Updates - Holding Steady in the 400s

Daily case rates are in the low 400s now and there hasn't been any spikes to indicate a second wave approaching. Active cases and hospitalizations are slowly decreasing but people are still passing away, averaging 1-2 a day. I'm still a bit concerned about a possible second wave as adherence to the "max five persons" rule is not happening that much and majlis gatherings are likely breaking that rule.

I was at the beach again on Friday and while there was tons of space between groups I was the only one wearing a mask in my group. To my friends' credit though they don't bug me about wearing a mask, they're fine with it. They are younger than me though so lower risk so while they are not wearing masks they don't begrudge an "older" person wearing one I suppose.

I went to the office to work for the first time in 3-and-a-half months. Again I was concerned but at our office it's around 30% attending, on a rotation, so there was plenty of space and it was set-up that no one was at the desks next to mine. Work even supplied each desk with a large bottle of hand sanitizer and everyone had to show their Etheraz app and undergo a temperature check to enter the building. This continues until August at which point work will have around 60% attendance, basically everyone who is eligible to work in the office (under Qatar's restrictions people over the age of 55 or with medical conditions that put them at higher risk for coronavirus must work from home).

Two more weeks at phase-2 of restrictions, then it will be Eid al-Adha at the end of the month, then Qatar enters phase 3. If there is to be a second wave it will likely be in the two weeks after Eid, as people spend the holiday visiting relatives, potentially increasing the spread of the virus.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - under 500 cases a day now

For two days in a row Qatar has reported fewer than 500 cases, today was 470. Everything is slowly lowering: the number of active cases (about 3,900 now), people in hospital (636), and in ICU (140). New daily cases hasn't been this low since mid-April. There is still a way to go but considering it wasn't all that long ago that greater than 2,000 cases a day was occurring this is great progress.

I am a bit concerned that many people have "quarantine fatigue" and not taking it as seriously as before. Outdoors you see people without masks and at the beaches/parks masks are rare. The Government restrictions of having no more than five people at gatherings is (I'm pretty sure) being largely ignored. A second spike like in the US is possible if people get too lax.

Malls and businesses, on the other hand, are much more serious about it. This weekend I stopped by a mall as I wanted to go to a pharmacy to stock up on various meds and vitamins (sunscreen, panadol, vitamin C, etc. nothing serious). The mall was STRICT: temperature checks, mandatory masks, had to show your Etheraz app, all just to be let in. Everyone in the mall had a mask on. It wasn't too busy, and at the moment children under the age of 12 are banned from malls so families were not there. Restaurants were take-away only. I wasn't there long, just went straight to the pharmacy and back out again. Didn't want to risk the supermarket, which is where most people were headed. Next week I will do a grocery run, hopefully the daily cases has dropped even more by then.

The travel restrictions have meant that the population of Qatar is actually higher than normal. Monthly population stats are available at www.psa.gov.qa and the population this summer is around 300,000 more than this time last year. Schools have ended for the summer vacation and normally hundreds of thousands would leave Qatar for home or cooler weather. Most can't do that now, and those who could face two-week quarantine when they return, so everyone has stayed put. It is strange to not go anywhere, the last time I left Qatar was at year-end for a long weekend in Oman. The next time I leave will likely be November or December, so I will have gone almost an entire year without travelling.

Such is the crazy year we have all been having. Stay safe everyone.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Cases Declining

It's still a bit up-and-down but today cases were in the 500s, the lowest in quite some time. Recoveries have outpaced cases every day for weeks and now there are around 9000 active cases.

With Phase 2 being implemented and the beaches open some friends and I went to the beach near Dukhan. It was brutally hot (45+), and the water was like a warm bath, but I think everyone was just desperate to get out of the house and be outside after months of lockdown. I wore a mask but the other guys didn't so I can't say I was entirely comfortable with that, at least we were outside so the strong UV rays would likely torch the virus. I think 'quarantine fatigue' has simply set in for most people and they want to live normally. I sure hope no one in the group was an asymptomatic carrier.

Next up is Padel-tennis. The courts are open now and I promised to play tomorrow. I think that will be less risky than sitting on a beach next to people.

I have been making an effort to get out of the apartment more because working from home will partially end for me on July 12th. The staff at the office have been put on one week on / one week at home rotation. Starting August I will be at the office full-time. This means I will be out and about anyway so might as well start leaving home occasionally. Not planning on going to malls or restaurants though and don't need groceries yet.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Cases Decreasing but Government Concerned

Daily cases in Qatar are slowly receding, today had 693. Quite the change from not so long ago when >2,000 was happening. Three more deaths today for a total of 113. There are still over 200 people in ICUs in the country so the death toll will continue to rise.

While the total daily case rate is decreasing the Government has noticed a disturbing trend -- the rate of cases amongst Qataris and white-collar expat workers is actually increasing, not decreasing. There is also an increase in family infections, with a person getting infected then infecting family members. The Government has determined that this is primarily due to people socializing or going to majlises and not taking proper safety precautions. I also saw pictures in social media of crowded beaches last weekend (not British or Florida-level crowded, but tons of people went to the beach).

July 1st is Phase 2 of reducing lockdown restrictions and due to the issues around local transmission the Government has announced they are scaling back some of the planned liftings. The main difference was to allow gatherings of up to 10 people, that has now been reduced to five people in an attempt to curb people meeting in majlis or otherwise socializing. I think the June 15 Phase 1 restrictions lifting led some people to think everything is cool and can be back to normal. This isn't over folks!


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July 1st also marks when the EU will release its list of countries that people can visit the EU from, due to those countries having low Covid rates. It has received a lot of coverage because leaks to the press indicated that the United States was definitely NOT on the list. Canada should be though.

Given that one criteria is countries have to have Covid rates similar to the EU there is no way Qatar or any other Middle East country will be on the list. By my estimate Qatar would have to average, over a two week period, fewer than 430 cases a day. Not gonna happen. The EU will revisit the list every two weeks. I doubt Qatar will be on the list by July 15th, but August 1st is a possibility, we'll see. August 15th is a realistic target.



I am willing to bet that EU list will become the standard for most other nations as well, which means going to countries like Canada will also be unlikely.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Sad Milestone

Unfortunately five more people died in the last 24 hours. Qatar has passed 100 deaths from the virus, the total is at 104. Given that Qatar has over 90,000 confirmed cases that is a death toll of 0.11%, which is very low but still it's sad that it happened. The Government warned yesterday that the death toll will increase as people from the peak (when it was 2000+ cases a day) are starting to pass away. Deaths appear to lag cases by 2-4 weeks.

Daily cases have picked up a bit again and have been at 1,000-1,200 a day. The Government has said that they are seeing an increase in cases amongst the Qatari and professional expat population and so reiterated that people need to continue to take precautions. Phase 2 of lifting restrictions isn't until next week but if things start to get worse the Government will reinstate restrictions.

I'm not sure what the 'new normal' will be like for the next few months. I can't see myself going to malls or shops, and the thought of going to a majlis where there are a lot of people would make me anxious. At least gatherings are restricted to ten people during July. I just wish we could see a significant drop in cases to give some confidence that things are definitely subsiding. Yes going from 2,000+ cases to 1,000+ cases is great but that is still a lot of cases in such a small country.

I still have plenty of supplies so I'm not in a rush to get groceries thankfully.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - Below 1000 Daily Cases now

The case rate keeps going down and today it fell to 881, the first time since early May that there were fewer than 1,000 cases. Recoveries have outpaced new cases for over a week now so I think Qatar is definitely over the peak. Still a ways to go though, 881 cases in a small country like Qatar is a big number. Around a quarter of tests are positive.

Sadly the deaths from the peak are now occurring. Some days it's only one but other days much more, a few days ago seven people died. Total deaths is now at 98. It's shocking seeing the ages of the people who passed, lots in their 40s and 50s, and today someone aged 37 died.

The next phase of lifting restrictions is July 1, so 10 days away. If daily case numbers keep decreasing during that time then it should be alright.

Qatar Coronavirus - A New Drug and Qatar Travel Restrictions Update

Yesterday I noted there were questions around when expats can return from abroad without paying for two weeks of quarantine. According to the quarantine hotel booking site (discoverqatar.qa) it is September 16th but things could change. Just now the Government rolled it back a week, earlier today the website showed September 23rd.

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Now the real excitement. British researchers have discovered a drug, Dexamethasone, a common steroid that is available worldwide, reduces mortality from severe Covid-19 cases. In patients on ventilators deaths went from 40% of cases to 28%, and for patients on oxygen deaths were reduced from 25% to 20%. The drug is cheap and easily accessible, and as it is a steroid it shouldn't have horrible complications or side effects. The first real treatment for Covid that is shown to reduce mortality! It's not a miracle cure but it will save thousands of lives.

That said it does not mean covid-19 is over and everything goes back to normal, a lot of people will still die from the virus. But it's a great start, more drugs are being tested, and this could open up new avenues of research once scientists figure out what specifically about dexamethasone helps patients.

This is why flattening the curve was the right thing to do, buying time. Buying time for hospitals, buying time for treatments to be developed. One or two more drug discoveries and we could be at the point of deterring things until a vaccine is created.

Go Science!

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - Phase 1 of Lifting Restrictions

Just a quick note today. Phase 1 of removing coronavirus lockdown restrictions occurred today. Some mosques are open, as well as some parks, and some malls can open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays (not weekends though) with limits to capacity and the shops that can open. On social media I have seen some videos/pictures of people in the malls. Everyone is wearing masks of course, and you're not allowed in unless you show your Ehteraz app and that it is green.

I'd say shopping is a bit risky, the daily case rate has definitely come down in the last two days but is at more than a 1000 cases a day. That's a lot of cases. I am certainly not planning to go to a mall for a long time, likely August or September. Hopefully the case rate does not increase next week or the restrictions could be put back in place.

There are also questions around when expats can return from abroad without paying for two weeks of quarantine. So far that will be in place for sure until August 31st but that is still going to be an issue for people returning so their kids can start school. Also hotel capacity could be an issue. Typically hundreds of thousands of people leave during the summer, there are not enough hotels rooms for them all if they come back near the end of summer! Now not everyone will leave this year, I know of three families who decided to stay put instead of travel, and some countries have not opened their airports yet, but it could still mean tens (and tens!) of thousands leave instead of hundreds of thousands.

Not an issue that affects me at the moment but we'll see what happens with the quarantine restrictions closer to August.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates (and Economy Update)

I have now found out that the Ehteraz app is indeed a proximity detector. Yesterday I received this message on my phone:

So it appears that someone in my building had contact with a confirmed case so they are self-quarantining (if the person had tested positive they would be at a quarantine center). I was in my apartment so I was not at risk from whomever this was. So the good news is the proximity detector works, the bad news is that because it is someone in my building I am now receiving this message numerous times, today I got it four times so far.

As for the virus, cases are still well over 1,000 a day, today it was 1,500+ but recoveries are now outpacing the new cases most days. There are still over 200 people in ICU and everyday deaths are being reported, although today it was only one. Seventy people have died so far from the virus. On the 15th phase 1 of lifting restrictions occurs but it is not a significant lifting (thankfully). Many mosques will reopen but limit the number of worshippers. I spoke to some friends today and none are planning to attend mosques yet, they will continue to pray at home for the next while.


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The economic downturn caused by the virus and the oil price crash has led the Qatari Government to announce a dramatic change. Ministries, other Government organizations, and entities sponsored by the Government, must slash 30% of expat staff costs effective immediately. It can be salary cuts, layoffs, a mixture of both, it doesn't matter how the 30% reduction is accomplished but it must be done. Qataris will be fine of course, though some Government benefits, such as paying out excess vacation time, will cease for Qataris as well so even citizens will face some impacts.

While this news is perhaps not too surprising, countries like Saudi Arabia recently enacted economic measures like sales tax increases (from 5% to 15%) and removing some worker benefits, this is the first all-around cut by the Qatar Government focusing on expat workers. There are also layoffs in the private sector, announced by companies such as Qatar Airways (~9,000 employees). The oil industry will also surely be laying off people, how many is hard to predict.

The impact will be significant and it will take some time for the economy to adjust. There will be the immediate impact of layoffs but it is the knock-on effect that will be hard to gauge: the already softening rental market will take a hit, private schools will face huge uncertainty regarding enrollment in September, workers who have their pay cut might search for another job and leave when they find one, and consumer spending will definitely take a hit just as the retail sector is gearing up to reopen. Based on experience with the previous oil price crash in 2014 large and expensive goods will face the biggest hit -- no one will buy a new car or furniture if they are uncertain about their job (or took a big pay cut), and bankers are definitely going to be worried about the bank's personal loans and whether people will be able to repay them. Rental housing/apartment construction will likely grind to a near-halt, which means layoffs in the construction sector in the next 3-12 months. So the economy will take time to re-adjust to the new post-lockdown reality.

The oil price is not going to rebound anytime soon and current prices of $35-40 a barrel is not enough to balance the Government's budget, so the cuts are here to stay. It is just a matter of how the economy reacts over the next year. I imagine that other Governments in the Gulf will be watching closely and may implement similar cuts, Kuwait in particular has faced a lot of calls internally to cut the expat workforce in the country.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Government Announces Plan to Lift Restrictions

Yesterday the Government held a press conference to announce the plan for lifting restrictions in Qatar. Soon the presentation/plan was all over social media -- I received three separate copies (two Arabic, one English) within 20 minutes of each other.

The timing might seem a bit odd as Qatar is still in the middle of the peak. Today there were 1,721 new cases and, sadly, five people died, the most that have died in a single day yet. However in the last three days the number of daily recoveries has been roughly the same as the number of new cases. The Government pointed out how everyone's efforts truly did flatten the curve so there is a manageable caseload over a longer period of time, ultimately preventing a situation like what occurred in Italy, Spain or Wuhan.

I think one of the reasons for announcing the plan now is to reassure people. The school term is about to end for the summer and this is when hundreds of thousands leave the searing heat for long vacations either back home or in more temperate places. Problem though, currently expats can leave Qatar but cannot return. When will that be lifted? Will the country then require two-week quarantines? What about the next school year, will kids go back to school? And when can businesses plan to reopen? I think that is why the Government announced the plan now, so that everyone can plan accordingly. It is not because the virus is subsiding now. The plan covers the entire summer, it's not like everything will be open next week.


The Government will do a 4-phase rollout:

Phase 1 - June 15th: some mosques can open, as can some shops and malls, but with restrictions as to capacity. On an essential basis an expat can leave and return to Qatar but they are subject to two-week quarantine at a hotel (and the person must pay for the hotel stay). Private clinics can have limited opening (with capacity and other restrictions).

Phase 2 - July 1st: Gatherings of up to 10 people can now be held, parks & beaches (but not playgrounds) open, all malls can open with capacity restrictions, some restaurants as well, offices can have up to 50% of staff working in the building (originally 20%).

Phase 3 - August 1st: Gatherings of up to 40 people, expats returning from low-risk areas might not require quarantine, playgrounds open, increased capacity for malls & restaurants & private clinics, gyms and barbershops can now open at reduced capacity. Offices can have 80% of the workforce at the premises.

Phase 4 - September 1st: Restrictions essentially lifted (I'm guessing except for things like wearing masks and social distancing). Expats returning from high-risk areas might need quarantine.



So the Government appears to think the virus will have subsided significantly by August, which seems reasonable. The phase timings are subject to change of course if things suddenly get worse.

The timing of opening barbers is important as August 1st will be during Eid Al-Adha. Traditionally people wear new clothes and have haircuts at that time to look their best so barbers will be in high demand.

It also does mean I will be in my apartment until August at least. Friends are already planning small majlis gatherings in July and I might go occasionally depending on if things start to settle down in Qatar. Luckily I also have plans to go on vacation in mid-August and return in early September, so hopefully everything goes in accordance with the Government plan so that I'll be able to return.

The Qatar Blockade -- Now Three Years

With all the craziness going on in 2020 I am willing to bet most people outside of the Middle East forgot that Qatar is still under a blockade by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt. It has been three years now since that day it was declared.

Needless to say everyone here is used to this 'new normal' and life has moved on. Three years ago when it first happened it was a nervous time. Was Qatar going to be invaded? Will there be a war? I got a bit jumpy whenever I heard military planes flying overhead. But everything settled into a blockade.

Over time Qatar pushed for a lot more self-sufficiency. There is now a dairy farm for milk, greenhouses for vegetables, warehouses for storing extra foods, factories to produce things domestically that were once imported, new Qatar Airways routes, the Qatari Government really stepped up during the crisis and got things happening. It was actually impressive how quickly they adapted to the blockade and changed how they did things.

This served Qatar well during the pandemic. There was already plenty of food in warehouses, factories producing sanitizer, and I'm willing to bet many of the field construction and other medical plans were part of their preparations in case the blockade got ugly, which they them implemented for the pandemic instead. If you look at my blog posts from March you'll read about all the stuff they were doing to prepare for the pandemic, while other countries were in denial or telling people to inject disinfectant. That 18,000-bed quarantine centre seemed like an overreaction when the Government announced it -- but they were right and by May it was needed.

Will the blockade ever end? Not in the short-term I doubt. Some of my friends were upbeat about some diplomatic developments but I have heard this sort of thing numerous times over the years and am skeptical it will resolve things. The biggest issue is how to end this yet have everyone save face? Saudi/UAE sent a list of demands three years ago, Qatar complied with none of them, and since then it's been a propaganda war with media in the blockading countries saying all sorts of things about Qatar. That will be hard to step back from and go, "oops, sorry about that".


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In Coronavirus news the Government loosened some restrictions. People can exercise outside without a mask (maintain distancing though), restrictions on the number of people in a car has been lifted, and most retail shops are now allowed to open except personal services such as barbers and spas. I don't think shops in malls are allowed to open yet though (I could be wrong). Lifting the restrictions is at an odd time, new cases are still 1500-2000 a day. Four people died today as well (49 total) so Qatar is not over the peak yet. Maybe the Ehteraz app is working well and allowing the Government to trace cases better. No changes to expat travel -- expats can leave if they wish but cannot enter the country.

Anyway, I'm still staying home.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Most Cases per Capita in the World

New cases are fluctuating, sometimes 1600ish, sometimes over 2000 a day. 1,901 new cases were announced today for a total of 62,160. Over 2% of the population have been diagnosed with the virus now, a greater % of detected cases than any other country.

Deaths are also occurring at a rate of 2-3 a day. 45 have died so far. It's the age ranges that worry me sometimes, people in their 40s and 50s are succumbing to the virus. It was expected though, because most of the population are working expats deaths would tend to be in the younger age range so be more infrequent than in the West. The death rate is still incredibly low given the number of cases.

The huge spate of recoveries has slowed. It turns out that international protocols changed: instead of releasing someone from quarantine after a series of negative tests, they can be released after 14 days of the first positive test. This resulted in something like 15,000 people being released from quarantine over four days. Now recoveries will mirror how many were diagnosed two weeks ago (today was 1,501). It should take some pressure off of the quarantine facilities at least.

Not really seeing a decline yet. Staying put at home. A friend bought me groceries during one of his shopping runs so I am set for at least six more weeks without needing to leave the apartment.

What I Get Up to Staying at Home

Decided to see how my new "lockdown beard" works with a Qatari thobe and gurtra.