Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Restrictions Re-imposed

For that last few days Qatar has gone over 500 cases a day, and today we crossed the 600-mark at 602. Hospitals are starting to fill up again and the deaths are climbing, in the last three days seven people have passed away from the virus. To give you an idea on 21 December I posted that there were fewer than 220 people in hospital for COVID of which 22 were in ICU. Now there are 1,350 people in hospital and 244 in ICU. This week two cases occurred in the office where I worked so the whole floor was shut and everyone had to work from home. Well, except me as I recently recovered from COVID so I went in each day and 'held the fort' so to speak. It was odd having the whole floor to myself.

The Government has reimposed restrictions, shutting some types of business, banning people under 12 from malls, restricting capacity at restaurants, and majlises can have only up to five people. The restrictions seemed geared towards Qataris as offices are still allowed to run at 80% occupancy so I suspect a lot of the cases are amongst the Qatari population. 

Vaccination efforts have stepped up and the Government how gives daily stats on the number of doses administered. It is around 700,000 doses now so I suspect about 200-250 thousand people are fully vaccinated and the rest have their first dose. Around 20,000 doses are being administered every day now. There's still a ways to go yet, at that rate to get 70% of the population vaccinated would take around 5-6 months. I think expats 50 and older can book an appointment now, and any Qatari over the age of 16.

So it looks like another time to semi-isolate. I have food stocked up so I don't need to go to the grocery store for a few weeks. I will still stop by a friend's majlis occasionally, pretty much everyone there is now either fully vaccinated or recovered from COVID recently. Last time I was there there were 10 people and two were not vaccinated/recovered yet, of whom one was someone who was rarely there. The other guy is getting his first vaccine dose on Sunday.

Stay safe everyone.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- and watching Roger Federer Play Tennis

 Qatar is still averaging over 400 cases a day (roughly the equivalent of 50,000 cases a day in the US) so the semi-restrictions are still in place. I heard a rumour that if it ever goes above 500 a day the Government will do a harsher lockdown but over the last few weeks it never reached that. I think the daily rate won't go much higher as it appears to be slowly going down in other GCC countries.

Qatar is still doing better than the rest of the GCC, both in terms of daily rates and in deaths, so the Government's actions are making a difference.

The Government has stated that over 300,000 doses of vaccine have been given out, but that means that probably less than 10% of the population has received at least one dose, still a long way to go. The vaccine is now available to every Qatari over 16, and to expats age 50 or older. As I came down with Covid in February I have to wait 90 days to receive the vaccine but almost all of my Qatari friends have been vaccinated now. That incident at a majlis where myself and three others were infected really spooked everyone and they rushed out to get vaccinated, which was a good thing I suppose. Wish some of us didn't get sick first.

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So I tried to buy tickets to the Qatar ExxonMobil Tennis tournament. As usual there were some great stars, including Roger Federer in his first tournament in over a year due to getting knee surgery, so there was a lot of excitement in the tennis world and all the major papers were following the event. Going online this is what I saw:

Federer's first match was Wednesday.

So on Wednesday night I was sitting at home when I got a call from a friend.

"I managed to get tickets! Can you get to the stadium ASAP?"

Luckily I live within a few metro stations of the tennis stadium so I was off, got there in about 30 minutes. Turns out my friend knew someone who had tickets but had to cancel so called my friend and offered the tickets to him.

We got inside just as the second set was underway.

Of course we had to show our Covid tracking app as well just to get into the grounds. Now the Government was strict about the social distancing, you could only sit in every fourth seat. All the other seats were tied shut so you could not open them to sit next to someone. It was staggered so you were not sitting near someone in the next row either, they were two seats away. It was a bit weird, sitting in a quarter-full stadium with everyone equally spaced.

Worth it to see Roger Federer though.

The match (against British no. 1 Daniel Evans) was a bit up and down, Dan was playing well but Federer was brilliant one moment, then shanking the ball the next. At the end of the last set suddenly Dan messed up a couple of points, giving Federer an opportunity and he managed to finish it on the second match point. It really could have gone either way.

It was great to see him play again -- who knows if there will ever be another opportunity. Unfortunately Federer lost his match the next day so the only chance to see him play again will be if he comes to the tournament next year. Not guaranteed to happen, he's skipped it before.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates (and an update about me too)

 My quarantine ended about five days ago and I was free! I did not come down with any other severe symptoms so after a rough first week things generally got better. Though I wound up with a mild-ish case COVID is no joke and it was not something I would like to repeat.

So far five of my friends have also come down with COVID and four of them had mild symptoms and recovered. One of my friends though, who is in his mid-30s, has had a much rougher time of it. Harsher symptoms, lasting much longer, lung issues, you name it.  He's on Day 16 from when symptoms started and he has been admitted to hospital twice now. He told me that things are improving and he hopes to be released from hospital in three days, he has a lung infection that they are treating but all of his other COVID symptoms are gone now. It was quite worrisome how bad he got this, and there is no reason why it couldn't have been me, or anyone for that matter. That is what is so scary about COVID, if you get it you have no idea what will happen and there is little that doctors can do except help you treat the symptoms while you fight off the virus.

Government rules for vaccination are that if you came down with COVID you have to wait 90 days before you can receive the vaccine. That means I won't get the vaccine until May. Yes I have some level of immunity in the meantime but I will not be able to travel without having to quarantine when I return. Once vaccinated I should be able to enter Qatar without quarantine. Meanwhile the age to register for the vaccine has been lowered to people 50 and older so the vaccine is slowly but surely being distributed in the country. I do not know how many people have been vaccinated now, I assume around 5% of the population, but things are progressing well. The country is still under some restrictions that were imposed a couple of weeks ago, those will likely remain for at least another month. Qatar is still at 400+ new cases a day but it has levelled off at that amount. Not great, better than the rest of the GCC but not great. 

I am hopeful that within a month enough people in Qatar will have been vaccinated that the case rates will drop significantly, and that by two months it will be back below 100 cases a day again.

I Have Tested Positive for COVID-19

So at the end of my previous post I said:

"So I think I will need to be more careful for the next while and hope this all passes."

If you look at the previous post there is a picture of a TV with the Government press conference, but there are other people in the room. That's because I was at a friend's place to hang out and watch the Thursday press conference. There were, I think, six of us there.

And unbeknownst to us one of them had COVID.

He felt fine and had no idea that he was ill, basically asymptomatic. But the next day (Friday) he started feeling unwell so went to get tested. On Saturday morning I received the call -- he had tested positive. I immediately locked down in the apartment, now I was going to have to self-quarantine for two weeks. Everyone was calling each other with updates and some had gone to the hospital to get tested. A friend of mine in the medical field told me not to get tested yet as it had only been 36 hours, not enough time for the virus to build up enough for me to register a positive test, if I tested now it would likely be negative. Better to wait a couple of days first then get tested.

It didn't take long, by Sunday evening the fever started. I got tested on Monday and had the results Tuesday.

It has now been about 12 days since the encounter and nine days since the first symptoms began. The first few days were the roughest: constant mild fever and loss of appetite. Panadol would sometimes help the fever but sometimes didn't. After that it seemed like one symptom would fade and another would appear. After the fever and loss of appetite came the muscle aches, then after a couple of days that went away and I got a stuffed up nose, then after that a bout of fatigue, then the occasional mild dry cough, it has been really weird. It does play on your mind, you're hopeful as a symptom fades that'll be the last of it but then something else happens and then I'm left wondering if something more severe is on its way.

Thankfully I never needed hospitalization and never had shortness of breath or a rough cough. The clinic did a chest X-ray when I went to get tested and they said it was fine. Given I haven't had any lung issues yet I am hopeful the virus never really got into my lungs.

Because I started getting symptoms after three days there was speculation that maybe I picked it up somewhere else. None of the other guys who were there that Thursday night came down with it, or so we thought. Yes, my symptoms showed up right away (three days, typically it's something like 5-8 days but 2-10 days is possible), unfortunately for the others it was later. So far two others have now tested positive, and one of them started getting sick eight days later. Now hoping their families didn't catch it. Thankfully no one has been hospitalized yet. I thank my lucky stars I have been okay so far, once you get it it's really a spin of the roulette wheel how it will affect you. Hoping the worst is over.

Meanwhile the cases keep increasing, now Qatar has over 400 a day. New restrictions have been implemented. Weddings and events are cancelled, malls and restaurants have reduced capacity. 

Sadly, too late for my friends and I.  

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - Cases Increasing, Government Considering Further Measures

Over the last couple of weeks the number of cases started increasing and community transmission is now at over 300 a day, remember a couple of months back it was just under 100 a day. Along with the increase in cases has been a slow and steady increase in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The Government held a press conference last Thursday and everyone was watching, the rumour was there would be some sort of restrictions put back in place, so everyone wanted to know what the Government would say. That there were rumours of restrictions were not far-fetched, a couple of days previously Bahrain closed schools and in-restaurant dining for three weeks, and the UAE has started to reintroduce restrictions as well. At the presser the Government did not announce any new restrictions but from what my friends told me the message to everyone was to essentially "get their act together" or more restrictions would be put in place. 

I have registered for the vaccine but haven't heard anything yet. When I get called will really depend on when and how much vaccine Qatar gets in future shipments. I am hoping within a month but who knows. 

Not that I will be travelling anytime soon, countries are increasing lockdowns. Canada implemented mandatory hotel stays for people entering the country and the UK has been banning flights from certain countries, including the UAE. Not a month ago the UAE was on the UK's safe travel list and now planes aren't even allowed to fly between the UK and UAE. Goes to show how things can change in a heartbeat. And now there's that new COVID variant in Brazil which is causing concern.

So I think I will need to be more careful for the next while and hope this all passes.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Levelling off, Vaccine Becoming More Available

Community transmission is still at ~150-170 a day, worse than a month ago but it seems to have levelled off and thankfully is not getting any worse. I was shocked to see what was happening in the UAE, I think in December they got some sort of safe travel designation from the UK, so people could go from the UK to the UAE and return without going into quarantine. Now the UAE is reporting 3,000+ cases of COVID a day! On a per-capita basis that's around six to seven times more than Qatar! The UK has since dropped them from the safe travel designation and now UK travelers have to quarantine. The UAE is now reporting 4-6 deaths a day and I expect it will get worse in the coming weeks. Good thing Qatar did not lessen travel restrictions. In fact the quarantine-hotel restrictions have been extended until May. I'm not sure if that applies if you get vaccinated though.

As for the vaccine Qatar has now lowered the age to get the vaccine to 60. The Ministry of Health has also started an online registration process for everyone else, you can register and when they have vaccine available for you they will contact you. I figure when the next shipment arrives I will be able to get my first dose, I just don't know when that will be.  

People have been making travel plans in anticipation of being vaccinated but I haven't really thought of that yet. It'll be at least a month from when I receive the first dose before I can travel so we are looking at April or maybe even May. Got time to sort out what to do.

The opening of the border with Saudi has not appeared to create much of a change in Qatar. Many Qataris went into Saudi to visit relatives, property they had left behind, go to Mecca, but not a lot of people coming into Qatar, I assume because they would have to quarantine first. Qataris I spoke to are a bit cautious about the developments, they welcome it but at the same time most have no plans to visit the blockading countries for a while yet, especially the UAE, who they especially do not trust. From word of mouth I heard that Qataris who have gone to Saudi have not experienced any troubles. I haven't heard of anyone going to Bahrain or Egypt yet.

Flights are now available to the blockading countries (maybe not Bahrain yet but that will be soon), which is great news. I have Bahraini friends and for them to get to Bahrain, normally a 25-minute flight, would take 5-8 hours as they had to go to Kuwait or Oman first then board a flight to Bahrain from there. It was also WAY more expensive to do that, typically triple the price of the Doha-Bahrain flight, or more!

And finally everyone is waiting with baited breath to see what other craziness is going to happen out of the USA. I mean, if what is happening there was a Hollywood script it would be rejected as being too outlandish and unrealistic. 

The Blockade has Ended! (Yes, things happened elsewhere in the World aside from the USA)

 So . . . did anyone hear that on January 5th the GCC met in Saudi Arabia and signed an agreement to end the blockade of Qatar? You didn't?! I guess it got buried in page 20 of the newspapers, you know, after the stories about the Democrats winning the Senate elections and the President unleashing a mob of "Y'all Qaeda" terrorists on the Capitol Building in Washington.

America is truly the World's "crazy-ex". Constant drama, and even when you want to ignore them and have them out of your life they get you caught up in all the craziness and you can't look away. Everything. Must. Have. Drama.   America can't seem to do things like normal countries.

Anyway, the blockade is over after three-and-a-half years. The borders will reopen, Qatar Airways can fly over Saudi airspace again, flights between the countries will commence shortly. It is not the end of the matter, the agreement was the 'good faith' step to get the countries to complete negotiations to resolve other issues. The blockading countries had 13 demands at the start of this situation and so far Qatar has not done any of them. Zero. So let's see where this goes from here.

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I said I would avoid malls and restaurants for a while due to COVID cases ticking up in Qatar but then I realized if Qatar opens the border then thousands of Saudis could potentially flood in. Saudi Arabia has pretty much given up on COVID testing, every day they report around 100 cases of COVID, yet around 10 people die every day, which is more indicative of 3000+ cases a day. Basically there is tons of undetected COVID going around Saudi Arabia. So I went to the grocery store and stocked up on a few things, hopefully that'll be it until I get vaccinated. Then I found out the Qatar Government had already thought about this as well and stated that anyone crossing the border from Saudi Arabia would need to be quarantined for a week. Great news for keeping COVID down in Qatar, bad news for the tourism industry who I am sure were gearing up for an influx of Saudi tourists.

Local community transmission is still over 100 a day so that slight uptick continues. It looks like other GCC countries like Bahrain are seeing big increases, and it's possible a third wave is on the horizon. I think Qatar's measures will at least keep that more-contagious UK strain out of the country, others in the region might not be so lucky.

 

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- starting to get worse

 After the months of slow decline in the number of cases my worries have come true and the case rate is increasing again. Now the daily cases is around 200 a day, with 120-160 being community transmission. The recoveries are around 100-120 a day so the number of active cases is growing. That will likely mean deaths will start to rise.

With the new strain going around Europe and other countries Qatar tightened quarantine restrictions on incoming travelers, most now must do mandatory quarantine at a hotel instead of self-quarantine at home, especially travelers from the UK and other high-risk nations. Hopefully the new strain has not reached here.

So is the case rate increase due to the National Day celebrations? Possibly not but the timing seems about right as the increase started 10 days or so after National Day. However Qatari friends of mine have also said that wedding celebrations are happening again so a lot of socializing is occurring there, and is a likely source of cases. I'm guessing the announcement of a vaccine has been making people lax about precautions as well.

I'll hold my hands up on this one -- in the last two weeks I attended two weddings. One was essentially held in a covered porch area so was effectively outside, the other was indoors, most people wore masks and my friends and I arrived early so we would not be with crowds of people, and left after 20 minutes. Hopefully there aren't any more invites, with the case increases I would be nervous attending any more. Have only been to a shop once in the last two weeks and that was a pharmacy so I have been careful in that regards,

Today the Ministry of Health announced that they were lowering the age for vaccine access, from 70+ to 65+. You have to book an appointment but anyone 65 and older can get the vaccine now. That's good news, hopefully a second batch arrives soon so more people can get the vaccine. I'm booking an appointment as soon as I can. Apparently it is two doses, taken 2-3 weeks apart, and you would not be deemed safe to travel until a week after your second dose, so I would have a month from my first dose until I am successfully vaccinated. I am hopeful by March I can get the first dose.

Hopefully in a few months Qatar will be generally free of COVID and life returns to normal. Qatar has done really well so far given there was no second wave.  Remember how for many months Qatar had the highest per capita case rate in the world? Now, if Qatar was a US State, Qatar would be 42nd for per capita cases, and last for the death rate (by far, it's not even close to the death rate in other States). Qatar has had 245 deaths so far during the pandemic, and a few days ago the State of Kansas (roughly the same population) had 193 deaths -- in one day! That is frightening to think about.

Just a few more months everyone. Stay safe!  

Qatar Updates for December

 Okay, there's a number of things to note, I'll touch on each briefly:

-- COVID virus numbers are slowly decreasing, now you get some days where community transmission is less than 100. Not every day mind you but now the community case rate is typically 80-120 a day. There are fewer than 220 people in hospital and 22 are in ICU, again a decrease from a few weeks ago. Sadly there is still one to three deaths a week.

-- But I am planning a personal 'semi-lockdown' for a couple of weeks. Qatar's National Day was December 18th, and the festivities makes it more likely that there will be a spike in cases in the coming weeks. The Government did take things seriously though, the annual military parade on the Corniche was invite-only, no general spectating, and I believe it was limited to a couple of thousand people spread out along the parade route. A friend of mine said the invites only went to family of the soldiers on parade and all of the soldiers were tested for COVID, but I could not find confirmation of that. Still there would have been crowds gathering later to watch the fighter jet show and the fireworks in the evening, increasing the risk of virus spread. I am planning to not go to any mall/restaurant/grocery store for a few weeks as a precaution. I have enough food at home for that.

-- There was also the Qatar Football League final, the Emir's Cup, held in the new Al-Rayyan stadium. When I watched it on TV there were a lot of people in the crowd and I was surprised that was allowed. It turns out a friend went to the match and he told me that to be allowed in you had to get a COVID test 24-48 hours before the match, so all of the spectators had been tested! My team (Al-Saad) won.

-- The COVID vaccine will arrive this week. Qatar has approved two vaccines so far, the Pfizer and the BioNTech vaccines but I couldn't find any reports as to how many doses will arrive. The Government has announced that the vaccine will be prioritized for three groups: over 65s, people with chronic health conditions, and healthcare workers. That's not as many people as you might think, according to the Statistics Authority only 1.36% of the population is over 65 (approximately 40,000 people). Depending on how many doses arrive the Government might be able to roll it out to others soon.

-- No Christmas celebrations for me this year. Normally I would have dinner with friends but someone in the family has chronic health issues so they are not having people over. And as I mentioned above I intend to not go to restaurants for a while. That's okay though, I'd rather be cautious as the vaccine is just around the corner.

-- People are still of the belief that an announcement ending the blockade will take place at the GCC Summit on January 5th. News is full of optimistic articles that talks are progressing.

-- I was hoping to see the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction last night but unfortunately it was low on the horizon and clouds covered it. Maybe tonight I will see it. Try to see it as well if you are able to.

The Blockade Might End Shortly!

There were announcements by the Foreign Ministers of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar that talks have made significant progress and that Saudi Arabia might end the blockade soon!  The other blockading countries (Bahrain, UAE and Egypt) do not appear to be involved with the talks but if a deal can be struck with Saudi Arabia then the blockade is effectively over. Qatar's only land border is with Saudi and if Qatar Airways can use Saudi airspace then the other countries will not be a hinderance.

The idea has met with mixed reactions amongst people that I know. People are happy at the thought it might end but it's been over three years now and everyone is kinda used to things being this way. Plus I don't think most Qataris are going to be traveling to Saudi anytime soon. One friend stated he wouldn't go for at least a year. It is unlikely Qataris are going to get warm welcomes from many Saudi people for a while yet. Plus, will they allow Saudis to travel into Qatar right away? Saudi is still having troubles with COVID (they report 200-300 cases a day, yet 10-20 deaths a day, which indicates the actual daily case rate is way higher, probably 3000-4000 a day).

COVID cases in Qatar have been gradually creeping down. Some days internal cases are 150-170 but today it was 108. I think you'd have to go back to May to find numbers that low. Hopefully hospitalizations decrease, it's under 300 but there are still over 30 people in ICU. I found out that Qatari who passed away recently was in the ICU for a number of months! Poor man, that must have been horrible.

If the blockade ends would I go to Saudi? Well I haven't been there yet (until recently they did not have general tourist visas that one could apply for) but given the years of tension I doubt I will be visiting anytime soon.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Vaccine Hope

Cases are still steady at 150-180 community cases each day, with 40-60 additional cases a day from travelers in quarantine. I wish the cases would lower but they stubbornly stay at the same levels. There have been 1-3 deaths a week but at least the second wave appears to be over in neighbouring Bahrain. Cases loads in other GCC countries are still fairly high.  I don't think it'll really start to go down until a vaccine is circulated.

Which of course is the big news, trials of three different vaccines have completed with great results and now all of the talk is when countries will receive them, how many doses they will get, and how they will be distributed. Talk in Qatar is the country could receive a vaccine in late-December, and a well-connected Qatari that I spoke to says the Government has already drafted up its priority list for who will receive the vaccine. Some people have wondered about whether enough people will take it or not, what if people refuse, etc. but they are thinking like Westerners. If the Qatar Government demands a expat take the vaccine your choices are: do it, have a medical exemption, or leave the country. This place isn't going to play around and cater to anti-vaxxer nonsense. So things could be back to normal soon. I expect February or March but a friend of mine in the medical field figures it'll take longer to get enough of the vaccine to create herd immunity, likely by June or July 2021. So there is still a ways to go.

Meanwhile some people are planning trips to the Maldives thanks to a travel bubble that was set up at two resorts. The resorts are separate islands and will only have guests from Qatar and the staff have already quarantined for two weeks. So you fly from Qatar to the Maldives on Qatar Airways (you have to book the resorts from Qatar Airways), go straight to the resort and stay there, full board. When you fly back to Qatar you don't need to quarantine because you were only at the resort. It's a neat idea and a number of people here are planning trips. Not me though, the minimum stay is five days and I'm not the kind of person who can just sit on a beach for five days. 

No trips for me, I'm staying put. Just need to be careful for a few more months.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - No Second Wave, Unlike Most of the World

 COVID cases are slowly lowering, now most days it is under 200. 30-50 cases are from travellers in quarantine so if you factor those out Qatar is consistently in the 140-170 cases a day now. Testing hasn't slowed down though, 8,000-10,000 tests are done everyday. People are getting tested for any type of flu or cold symptoms, a friend of mine did yesterday when he came down with a cold (he tested negative). With the border shut due to the blockade as long as Qatar keeps quarantining travellers arriving by air, and mandating protective measures like masks and use of the Etheraz app, there shouldn't be a second wave.

I sometimes use COVID statistics to remind people here just how much the Qatari Government has done. Many people do not really grasp just how well Qatar has weathered this storm and how all of its work has kept things from being much worse than it could (and should) have been. We are all aware of the second waves rampaging through Europe, the Middle East, and the US and it's bad. To think a few months ago I was pondering if the EU would put Qatar on its "low-risk" countries list, now Qatar has fewer cases per day (per capita) than most European countries. 

But the US in particular is a shocking comparison. The US is a very large country so while the overall average is scary when you get to looking at individual states you can really see how it is, or was back when the northeast had that devastating first wave.

Qatar is currently at a 4.77% infection rate, only Bahrain is higher. The US is at 3.1%, UK at 1.75% and Canada at 0.7%, but when you look at individual US states, the worst are:

North Dakota: 7.12%

South Dakota: 6.25%

Iowa: 4.84%

Wisconsin: 4.59%

Nebraska: 4.25%

So around 7% of the population of the Dakotas has caught COVID. Wow!

But it's the death rate that is tragic.  Qatar is at 82 per million people, quite low compared to the West. Canada is at 278, UK at 721, France at 619 and Italy, burned in peoples' minds as one of the worst-hit countries, is at 685. So how bad was that initial wave in the US northeast? Here's the top five US States by death rate:

New Jersey: 1,865

New York 1,739

Massachusetts: 1,472

Connecticut: 1,310

Louisiana: 1,298

As far as I can tell all five of those States have death rates higher than any country in the world. New York and New Jersey have nearly triple the death rate of Italy. If Qatar had a similar death rate an additional 5,000 people would have died (currently it is at 232 dead).

Qatar quelled the pandemic and treated everyone in hospital for free. It does deserve recognition for its efforts.

 

 

Qatar Coronavirus Update - Still the Same

Nothing has changed much, still hovering around 200 cases a day, travel restrictions and quarantines still in place. No new restrictions added. It could definitely be worse, other GCC countries experienced a second wave and the number of cases and deaths went up. Qatar has been spared that at least. Lots of the detected cases are from travellers returning to Qatar and sitting in quarantine, some days up to 40 cases are from travellers. Goes to show how prevalent the virus is in the world and how if you fly anywhere there is a reasonable chance someone on the plane will have COVID. Flying is still risky.

Yesterday marked a milestone, Bahrain passed Qatar for most detected cases per capita in the world (well, except the micronation of Andorra). Qatar no longer has that unfortunate title. With so many other nations having a second, or third, wave if Qatar can keep the restrictions in place and keep things to 200 cases a day or lower then Qatar will drop down the "most cases per capita" list fast. To reach Qatar's total though the US would need 15m cases (currently it's at 9m) but let's face it, many nations did not do enough testing and their reported numbers are lower than the actual. 

My life is reasonably normal now. I go to the office, meet with friends occasionally, went to the beach with some people the other day. I wear a mask always but outdoors almost no one else does. Malls and office buildings are still quite strict but shops on the street less so. Went to the mall yesterday and it was very crowded, more than I was expecting. I wasn't comfortable with that so I got a coffee to go and soon left without going grocery shopping like I planned. I figured back in June COVID would be mostly over by now in low-risk areas like Europe, boy was I naive. Multiple waves follows the pattern of the last major pandemic, the 1918 'Spanish Flu', which had three distinct waves, so I suppose there was no reason to think only one wave was going to happen this time. It's not like the world did something extraordinarily different from 1918 to stop the pandemic. We can only count our lucky stars that the mortality rate is a lot lower than initially expected. Remember when it was first going around China the mortality was thought to be as high as 3-4%. It looks like it is more around 0.3-0.5%, though we will not know for sure unless we figure out exactly how many people ultimately were infected. 

The other excitement of the day is the current uproar the Muslim world has with France, given comments by Macron and others. Lots of people here are boycotting French products and on social media I see lots of information being shared about which brands and shops are French. Most (not all though) of my Muslim friends are boycotting but non-Muslim expats don't appear to be too concerned about it.

As for the US Election the general view is 'meh'. No one is too fussed about it, Qatar has its own problems to worry about (COVID, oil prices, blockade, lack of travelling) so while everyone is aware it's happening, I don't think anyone is thinking much about what would happen afterwards. I can't wait for it to be over though, getting so sick of seeing it dominate all the news.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Under 200 Cases a Day

It's been a while since I posted -- I'm wondering if people thought I came down with COVID!  No, I'm fine, I have not been ill. Just a lot of work and stuff keeping me busy.

For the most part Qatar was holding steady at 200+ cases a day, and the occasional death, but the number of cases was slowly creeping down and for the last four days it has been under 200 cases a day, which is great.  Maybe the long consistency of 200+ cases was due to the schools opening.

Today was 194 cases but the Government statistics notes that 14 cases are from returning travelers in quarantine so the number of community cases is 180. It's an improvement but people need to stay vigilant about masks and so forth, there are currently 377 people in hospital, and of those 59 are in ICU, so the virus is still making a lot of people seriously ill. The number of active cases is around 2800, which is roughly what one would expect from 200 cases a day over two weeks, and a far cry from the peak when Qatar was getting over 2000 cases A DAY!

Qatar is doing much better than other Gulf countries who are reporting large numbers of cases (Bahrain, UAE) or deaths (Saudi, Oman). The Government still has strict entry controls and quarantines in place.

But 200-ish cases a day means that slowly, but surely, the virus is spreading. Gone are the days when no one knew someone who had the virus, now almost all my friends know somebody (relatives, friends, co-workers) who caught it. In my office at least three people have had it (no deaths thankfully). Does this mean people have become more careful? Nope! I am the only one wearing a mask at a majlis or when visiting friends. It is stricter in malls and restaurants though. My fear is that it will take someone close getting the virus before people take things seriously again. My fear is finding out there was a "super-spreader" event at a majlis and suddenly many of my friends and their families fall ill.

I was hoping to travel this November-December to somewhere but alas that just doesn't seem likely anymore. I was too optimistic about the virus diminishing and there being no second wave.

Stay safe everyone. 

Qatar Coronavirus Updates - Still no Second Wave, but not Reducing Either

This week saw the daily number of cases stay steady in the 200s. Schools started so we will see if next week that will lead to a second wave. Many countries in the world, especially in Europe, are dealing with a huge increase in cases but so far in Qatar that hasn't happened yet. I spoke to someone that I know in the public medical field here and they told me most of the cases appeared to be Qataris and white-collar expats, with a lot of spread amongst families. They don't see as many blue-collar expat cases as before. This means an increased likelihood of the virus spreading in schools, most blue-collars workers do not have their families here so daily cases are more likely to reach children.

Is there any reason to trust the data from the Government? I think so. Remember Qatar has the highest per capita number of detected cases in the world, currently at 4.3% of the population. The next highest rate is Bahrain at 3.4% (UK is at 0.5%, US at 1.9%, Canada at 0.35%). If Qatar was fudging numbers to "look good" they wouldn't be reporting such a large number of cases, Qatar could have reported a quarter of the cases and people would have believed it.

Nowadays for COVID-19 stats I go to worldometers.info, which updates information as they receive it. You can report information as long as you cite a source -- in the last few months I sent them updates based on Government presentations and the website was updated within 15 minutes. They also have charts/graphs for every country and examining them shows interesting trends.

Qatar has a solid bell curve when the first wave hit in May-June, which then tapers off to where we are today, roughly 200-300 cases a day.

The deaths follow a similar pattern, with a 2-4 week delay from the peak.

But when you look at Saudi Arabia, you see a similar bell curve for cases:

But not for deaths, which have barely reduced:

That the death rates have not significantly decreased is odd given the dramatic drop in daily cases. It indicates a problem with the data, either Saudi is not detecting cases well anymore or they might be counting deaths as COVID-19 related when perhaps they are not.

Bahrain has entered a second wave -- daily cases are now worse than ever (and on a per-capita basis nearly seven times worse than Qatar):

And the deaths are starting to pick up as well. Sadly the country passed Qatar in total deaths this week, despite having roughly half the population.

Kuwait never appeared to get a handle on things, daily cases have been steady since mid-May:

But look at the deaths:

I am guessing Kuwait wasn't detecting many of the COVID-19 cases back in May-June as the death rate then was much higher than it is now, despite the detected number of cases not decreasing significantly. Per capita case rate is also more than double Qatar's right now so it's hard to say if Kuwait is in the beginning of a second wave since the first wave never seemed to taper off.

Finally Oman. I don't know what happened here, it appears in August they stopped publishing frequent case data because the information suddenly becomes sparse:

But look at the deaths!

Is it a second wave? It's hard to say, the big spikes occur after a gap in data, it's possible that Oman is reporting all of the deaths over the period, so you have data for 3-5 days in one go.

So Qatar's data seems to follow an expected cases to deaths pattern, whereas with some of the other nearby countries it can be a bit more problematic. I don't see any reason to mistrust the Qatar data at this time.

Coronavirus Updates and a Huge Change to Employment Rules

What I was worried would be a post-Eid spike in COVID-19 did not occur, thankfully. All through the month cases held steady but slowly decreased from the upper 200s a day to the low 200s, it was even under 200 a couple of days ago. A slight decrease yes but overall I would say it was steady through the month. Deaths are 2-3 a week now instead of every day. There's still over 60 people in ICU though. The Ministry has added a new statistic about how many of the new cases are from travelers in quarantine, which is around 10-12 a day, so the number of community cases is actually at or just below 200 a day now.

The Government was not entirely happy with how things have developed so decided not to go completely to Phase 4 of removing lockdown restrictions today. Some restrictions were removed but others remain so I guess we moved to Phase 3-and-a-half. The Government hopes to move to phase 4 in a couple of weeks. The Metro opened today but at 30% capacity, and offices are still at maximum 80% of staffing. Spa/massage services are still closed.

Unfortunately part of phase 3 travel restrictions was that Qataris coming in from low-risk countries could self-quarantine at home for a week. Months ago when self-quarantine was allowed many Qataris would ignore it and the Government would arrest them. And guess what's happening now? Arrests for breaking quarantine! Five yesterday, four the day before. Some people don't learn.

I think the Government is being cautious as it is waiting to see what happens with the opening of schools. This was the other area that I was concerned could lead to a second wave, face-to-face schooling. Schools opened today so we'll see what happens over the next two weeks.

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In non-COVID news the Government announced a big change to labour laws, raising the minimum wage slightly but, more importantly, removing the requirement for a No Objection Certificate ('NOC') to change jobs.

Most workers in the Middle East are foreigners and it can be expensive for an employer to bring workers. Flights, visas, and so forth add up, usually to thousands of dollars. So employers were concerned about spending a bunch of money to bring people in, only to have them start job-hunting when they arrive and change jobs as soon as they get a better offer. Also a business could save money by poaching staff from competitors, just wait for someone else to spend the money bringing workers then offer those workers a slightly better salary to move to you. To protect against that the NOC system was created, for the first X years of employment (I think two in Qatar) the employee cannot change jobs without receiving an NOC from the employer. Unfortunately this system gave the employers a lot of power over employees, many of whom went into debt in their home countries to pay an agency for the job so now they can't afford to leave. Result: employees who can't leave an abusive employer. The NOC is a key part of why there are problems with workers in the Gulf being unfairly treated.

So Qatar will be removing the NOC, allowing workers to give a months notice (might be two, it depends on how long you worked for the employer) then leave for another job. It's a great step for workers' rights. However I suspect implementing this is not going to be all rainbows and unicorns as now the country will have to deal with staff immediately leaving or competitors poaching. But that is an issue for the companies, and a company was underpaying workers or treating them poorly they deserve to have them leave and be stuck with costs. In the long-term, after the initial 'growing pains' it should result in improvements for workers in terms of salary and treatment and I hope it results in significant improvements for low-paid workers. I am sure other countries in the Gulf will be closely watching how this develops, as will Human Rights groups.

The exact this will occur depends on when the new law is gazzetted, H.H. the Emir signed it though.

Stay safe everyone.

 

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- No Second Spike (so far)

It has been three weeks since Eid ended and there has been no evidence of a sharp increase in cases. Things are holding steady at around 230-290 cases a day, it could be better but at least it hasn't become worse. Unfortunately people here are being pretty laid-back about it now, in March when over 200 cases was first reported it was a huge deal and people were very concerned, now people are just going on with their lives. At least restaurants and malls are still strict about mask wearing and temperature scans. Most restaurants aren't open for dine-in either, take-away and delivery is standard for almost all of them now but many do not allow you to eat inside. 

While there was talk of the Government delaying moving to Phase 4 (currently scheduled for September 1st) there have been no announcements. I realize it has been almost six months but people need to still take things seriously. There are still hundreds of people in hospital, over 60 in ICU, and people are still dying from the virus. Until such time as there is a vaccine precautions are always going to be needed. Today was around 280 cases, or about 100 cases per 1,000,000 people. It doesn't seem like a lot but that is higher than most countries. Yesterday the UK reported 19 per million, Spain 78, Canada 7, and in the US, which everyone considers to be a complete basket case of COVID, it was 134. The population of Qatar is roughly the same as the city of Vancouver and if Vancouver reported over 200 cases a day they'd be shutting things down.

The Government is hopeful for a vaccine by the end of the year and is already planning the acquisition and distribution should one be available. I am a bit skeptical of something by the end of the year, especially if it is that vaccine announced out-of-the-blue by Russia.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- possibly a second wave?

The last few weeks saw a gradual decline in cases but now they, at first glance, appear to be increasing. People are already discussing a second wave. I thought so at first as well but looking at the numbers now I am not sure if it is a significant trend.

The issue is the Eid Al-Adha holiday, which started on July 31st. If we look at the daily case rate in Qatar over the last three weeks, starting at July 23rd:

July

23: 373 

24: 394

25: 398

26: 269

27: 292

28: 283

29: 273

30: 307

then it's the Eid break

31: 235

1: 216

2: 196

3: 215

4: 216

then Eid break is over

5: 267

6: 287

7: 291

8: 267

9: 297

10: 315

11: 384

12: 292

13: 343

14: 251

There's definitely an increase from the 9th-13th when you compare it to the lowest segment, during Eid, but given that the lowest numbers happen to occur during a major holiday makes me wonder if the fact that it was a holiday explains the drop in cases. People might have been less inclined to go for testing, maybe contact tracing efforts slowed down as staff were on holiday, who knows. It does seem like an odd coincidence though.

The last five days are comparable to mid-late July so it might be that Qatar is just continuing on its curve flattening. If you ignore the Eid numbers it seems reasonably consistent.

Now in earlier blog posts I noted my concern that the Eid holiday would result in an increase in cases as people socialized over the holiday. It is now 10 days after the last Eid day so an increase in cases should be seen now. That might account for the slight increase we are seeing. If that's all the increase then it is a lot better than I thought it could be, I was worried post-Eid we would see a big spike. Today looks pretty good so there might not be a spike after all.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- and Eid Updates

So it is the middle of the Eid holiday (for most at least, banks and other financial services opened today) and I am not so sure about how strictly people are social distancing. At least shops and malls are doing a good job of making sure people wear masks and show their Etheraz app to show that they are not a suspected case of COVID-19. I sure hope the barber shops were being careful, getting a haircut is a standard thing to do for Eid and the barbershops were sure to be busy. I'm not planning to go for at least two more weeks, chances are the barbers will catch coronavirus but many will not have symptoms. They would be fine in a couple of weeks though.

On Monday I did something that I haven't done for almost five months -- go to a restaurant. As of August 1st restaurants can do limited indoor seating and some friends wanted to meet for breakfast so I figured I would give it a try as I did not expect the place to be busy. I was correct, we were the only table for most of the time there. A couple showed up later and were seated at the opposite end of the restaurant. The restaurant was strict on procedure, they took everybody's temperature, looked at our Etheraz apps, and wrote down our names and ID before allowing us in. Waiters were heavily masked up and had face shields. I only ordered cooked foods, though now that I think about most breakfast items in a restaurant are cooked. We didn't have coffee though as afterwards the guys wanted to go to a nice cafe they knew in the Musherib district. Again we had our temperatures taken and had to show our Etheraz app. Again we were the only people seated, though others did show up to get coffee to go.

As for COVID-19. Qatar has been hovering in the 200-ish cases a day now. Some days more than 200 but other days fewer than 200. Qatar is still not on the EU travel list but I'm wondering if they'll be included when the list is reviewed next week. Maybe not though, there are still around 3,000 active cases in Qatar. I'm also worried about a post-Eid second spike with all the social visits and crowds at barbers.

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Now Under 300 Cases a Day

Things continue to improve and the last three days has seen daily cases under 300 a day. Qatar has been closing some of their "coronavirus-only" medical clinics and allowing them to operate normally. There are still about 100 people in ICU and anywhere from zero to two people are dying each day but that should lessen over time.

The Eid Al-Adha holiday starts tomorrow which means lots of socializing for people and attendance at mosques. It is a risky situation, Qatar entered Phase 3 of removing restrictions yesterday so more places are open and gathering sizes have increased. There's a real risk of a spike in cases over the next two weeks if people are not careful. I think most people feel that the worst has passed so they are being more lax about things. It's a dangerous mindset, if you look at some countries in Europe, some states in the US, or places like Hong Kong, it does not take much for the virus to take hold again. Oman has reimposed some restrictions after cases shot up there and Bahrain is not doing well either.

Hopefully the Eid holiday does not cause problems but there is another potential hotspot on the horizon -- the reopening of schools in September. Now that travel restrictions have been lessened a lot of people left Qatar for home or holidays, and schools will be reopening in September. The potential for the virus spreading is big as a child may have caught it abroad, shows no symptoms, then spreads it at school from which it will spread to families.

If by late-September there is still no uptick in cases then Qatar will have done a great job handling the crisis. Until then there is a possibility of a second wave and for restrictions to be reinstated.