Qatar Coronavirus Update - Holding Steady at 600-900 Cases Per Day

In the last four days there were anywhere from 600-900 cases a day (three days at 600+, one day at 800+). The total number of cases is now 14,096. Unfortunately two more people have passed away, a 96-year old and a 40-year old, so in total 12 people have died here.

Blood plasma treatment is starting to get back in the news as a promising treatment to help lessen symptoms. Qatar is using it now but the two deaths does show that while it might help (studies are still ongoing) it is not a miracle cure and people still need to be careful.

Restrictions in Qatar continue. The Council of Ministers agreed to extend them for a while yet. With 600+ cases a day I don't blame them. The Health Ministry held a press conference yesterday and noted that testing capability has been increased and that the majority of cases continues to be mild. In terms of age range 73% of the cases are in the age range of 15-44, people over the age of 65 are only 1.3% of cases.

Qatar has one of the highest per capita rates of infection in the world right now, at 4,893 per million people. Based on the trajectory I expect Qatar will surpass Spain (5,125/million) tomorrow or Sunday. I think this is because of Qatar's testing methodology though -- mass testing of people potentially in contact with known cases, regardless of whether they show symptoms. It caught a number of asymptomatic cases and is one of the reasons why the mortality rate is so low (the low median age of the people in Qatar is the other factor). In the West many countries could only test people who showed symptoms, were high-risk, or who went to hospital. Qatar, and similar places like Singapore, demonstrate that asymptomatic and mild symptom cases are likely more widespread in the West then the official number of cases would indicate. A number of news articles are already calling into question the figures reported in countries such as Italy and the US, and other indirect methods (for example looking at total deaths over time compared to prior years, or antibody testing a sample of people) indicates much higher case rates, and deaths.

Daily recoveries in Qatar are around 60-100 a day, far fewer than the number of new cases, so I expect Qatar will not loosen restrictions for some time yet.


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