So tonight is it very important announcement for the country of Qatar -- the international Olympic Committee will be announcing a short list of candidates for the 2016 Olympics. Doha is one of the seven candidate cities vying for the 2016 Olympics (I think be others are Baku, Chicago, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid, Prague, and Tokyo) and tonight the IOC shortlists it down to four or five.
I hope Doha does make it onto the shortlist because it will be a key step to hosting the Olympics. Now I don't mean the 2016 Olympics, personally I don't think Doha realistically has a shot at that. But before any Qatari reading this gets all bent out of shape I have two reasons why I don't think they will get it:
1) almost no city ever gets awarded the Olympics on their first bid (in fact I was always under the assumption that no city gets it on the first bid, but it may have happened in the past such as Atlanta -- I haven't researched it though)
2) from a geographic perspective it is unlikely that the games will return to a country in Asia this quickly. The 2008 games are about to start in China, the 2012 games are in Europe. It seems unlikely to me that the 2016 games are going to go back to Asia to a first-bid city with a population of less than one million people.
My personal bet is on it going to one of the Americas.
So why am I hopeful that Doha makes it onto the shortlist? Because it is an important steppingstone for the 2020 Olympics -- that's the Olympics I think they really have a shot at! But it is important that they get onto the 2016 shortlist -- by making it onto the 2016 shortlist Doha will undergo further IOC review, they will point out the weaknesses in their application and give Doha time to remedy them for a solid 2020 bid.
Now others may disagree with my analysis, and deciding on which city gets the Olympics always has had a bit of a political element to it, but I just can't see that it would be Asia's turn again. 2020 -- strive for it Doha. Don't give up if the 2016 bid doesn't work out.
We'll find out tonight -- good luck Doha!
2 comments:
My money would probably be on Rio. When was the last time they held the games in South America. I'd say Doha had a better chance than Baku.
Doha would be similar to the choosing of Sarejavo in 1984, if you think about it.
See next blog entry for the results!
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