Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Qatar Coronavirus Updates -- Is Herd Immunity Possible Against Delta?

Welp, Qatar had another 138 community cases (and another 67 from travellers in quarantine), pretty typical daily amount I'm afraid. 100-180 a day seems to be the new norm. The death rate is way lower though, thankfully, with maybe one person dying every week or so. Qatar does have one of the lowest per capita COVID death rates in the world (214 per million, the US and UK are nearly at 2,000).

That cases are still 100+ despite the high vaccination rate is worrisome. Qatar is currently at 81.6% of the total population having at least one dose (not eligible population, TOTAL population) and 73.7% have had both doses. Yes community transmission continues at a rate of about double what it was earlier this year. The Delta-variant is much more contagious than regular COVID so the herd-immunity percentage becomes higher. Clearly 73.7% is not enough, but what will? In a months time the rest will have their second dose and Qatar will be at 81%. I am skeptical that it will be enough.

And we can't count on vaccinating more people aged 12+, according to the Government 94.2% of the eligible population has at least one dose, there are few people left who can get vaccinated.

That leaves vaccinating children. Qatar will surely wait for announcements from the US or the EU regarding whether the vaccine can be used on kids, but when will that be? I've read articles it'll be this winter, it'll be early 2022, it'll be later than that, it'll only be for kids aged 6+, all sorts of speculation is flying around. Meanwhile schools have just opened back up in Qatar, though apparently at 50% capacity, I think by rotating, having one group for a week then another group for a week. Given children are the most vulnerable to infection given they are not vaccinated I expect a jump in cases in the next couple of weeks, a mini "third wave" essentially. 

All of this is getting me a bit anxious again. Studies are showing that vaccine effectiveness starts to diminish after six months, and Delta is capable of infecting vaccinated people, so I no longer feel completely safe. My last dose of vaccine was in June so I should be good for a few more months but all the same it is a bit unnerving knowing there is still a risk of reinfection. I am guessing boosters will be announced for everyone soon so a third dose is on the horizon.

I'll feel better if Qatar can get below 75 cases a day, but I don't think that'll happen until late-October, or maybe only after children can get the vaccine.


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